HOME PRICES ARE SLOWING, INVENTORY DOWN, GREAT TIME TO SELL?

There is a perception, perhaps a misconception, that the time to sell, must be when everyone else is... After all, the market is hot, right? Everyone is doing it. The fact is, the great investors and money makers of our time, generally speaking, are taking action that is counter intuitive to what is happening in the financial and societal trends of the current moment. Inventory is in fact, at time of publication, at 1.9 months, traditionally by definition, a seller's market. (six months inventory is considered a neutral market, for your information). And yet, seller's are hardly laughing all the way to the bank. The Case-Shiller Index indicates prices may dip slightly. So what gives? Here is the true story that the newspapers won't or can't give you because of lack of understanding of real estate. Right now there is 1.9 months of inventory, not because houses are flying off the shelves as quickly as owners list them, but because owners are listing their properties for sale. There is a hesitation. Perhaps one reason is that the people who regained massive or respectable equity positions, did in fact sell and those that remain are waiting for the rest of their equity to return. Being still 24% down from our high of 2006, -- coupled with the prediction that appreciation this year will be 6% to 8%, not the 20% we luckily (and scarily) achieved last year, -- they may be waiting for a while. Buyers on the other hand, have watched that 20% rise, and are determined not to over pay for their property. They too have read the headlines that prices are slowing, and are mistakenly thinking there is a bubble that will burst and are waiting for that to happen. They too, will have a long wait. There is no bubble. Prices rose quickly but the money and qualification process was real and people have skin in the game. Foreclosures are at an 8 year low (more on that later). Hence, we are in the midst of a learning curve. A period or lull in the market when everyone adjusts to the latest adjustment. It will happen. But no one will be happy. That is the point of this article, accept the fact that whether you are a seller or a buyer, you probably will not love either position right now, even though there is nothing wrong with either position. Sellers need to accept the fact that they are not going to make a killing this year. They cannot list $50,000 about the last comparable sale, just because it worked last year. It isn't going to work this year, save unique properties. Buyers need to accept the fact that they aren't going to get a steal. Not this year, or next year either. But what they will get, is an opportunity to come into the California real estate market, and achieve a greater return on a10 year average than any other investment they could make. Let's remember however, that home ownership should be more than the investment. It is where you raise your family and create your memories. And by the time you realize the tax breaks, and that you are building equity rather than throwing away rent, it is a pretty sweet deal. There are plenty of sellers and buyers out there, that must act regardless of market conditions. To them it is prudent to say, "Go to it, before you have more competition. Because Spring is coming and with it everyone else..."